The Future of Labor?

“It won’t happen all at once, but we’ll soon be able to work with AI that helps us accomplish much more than we ever could without AI; eventually we can each have a personal AI team, full of virtual experts in different areas, working together to create almost anything we can imagine. Our children will have virtual tutors who can provide personalized instruction in any subject, in any language, and at whatever pace they need. We can imagine similar ideas for better healthcare, the ability to create any kind of software someone can imagine, and much more.

With these new abilities, we can have shared prosperity to a degree that seems unimaginable today; in the future, everyone’s lives can be better than anyone’s life is now. Prosperity alone doesn’t necessarily make people happy – there are plenty of miserable rich people – but it would meaningfully improve the lives of people around the world.”

—Sam Altman, The Intelligence Age

We should take Sam Altman's words to heart. Back in late 2024, he presciently pointed out that everything will change forever: science, wage labor, community life. He is often accused of “hype” in order to sell his products. However, anyone who tries out AI tools can see for themselves that there is no hype behind these products; they exceed all expectations and clearly have the potential to transform all areas of life.

A few days ago, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei joined this chorus in an interview, stating openly that we will experience major upheavals in the labor market in just a few years and that we need to prepare for this today. He warns urgently that unemployment of up to 20% and the cure of all diseases will be a reality in up to five years. Yet disbelief and, in some cases, ignorance continue to prevail among the population.

That is why I took the opportunity to look at the empirical data and make a projection for the coming years. You can find the sources below the article so you can check for yourself. It is time to tackle the social debate about the future of work now.

All the best,

The Future of Labor?

When more than 25,000 dockworkers on the US East and Gulf Coasts blocked container flows within 72 hours in the fall of 2024, it wasn't just about wages, but about the introduction of semi-autonomous gantry cranes that could make a large part of the shift crews redundant. Just a few months later, an even starker warning was issued: Dario Amodei, CEO of AI pioneer Anthropic, publicly warned that “AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs in the next one to five years and drive unemployment to 10-20%.”

The altercation on the quay and Amodei's fiery letter are harbingers of profound upheaval. Economists worldwide estimate that AI-based systems could fully or partially automate nearly 300 million full-time jobs by 2030, while at the same time boosting global GDP by up to seven percent.

Against this backdrop, the central question arises: How will AI and robotics transform the labor market over the next three, five, ten, and twenty years—and what social arrangements will prevent technological progress from turning into social regression?

1. Starting Point in 2025: Acceleration with Systemic Risk

OECD analyses currently estimate the risk of automation at an average of 28% of all jobs in member states; in advanced economies, 60% of jobs are considered “AI-exposed” – half of which are at risk of genuine substitution. Kristalina Georgieva sums it up: “Almost 40% of global employment is at a turning point.”

Empirical leading indicators confirm the trend: Microsoft, Walmart, and CrowdStrike alone have cut over 7,500 jobs in 2025 with explicit reference to AI-driven efficiency gains. Robotics is also playing its part, as Boston Dynamics recently demonstrated in its latest video. In the medium term, blue-collar workers are therefore also at extreme risk.

2. Scenarios for 2028 (3 years): Disruption of Entry-level Positions

• White-collar shock According to Amodei, there is a real danger of a “bloody awakening” because agent software will suddenly take over the tasks of junior developers, analysts, and paralegals. A short-term unemployment rate of up to 20% is considered plausible in his model runs.

• Productivity dividend At the same time, the World Economic Forum report predicts a global increase of 78 million jobs by 2030, mainly in the tech and green sectors – but many of these will require qualifications that are normally provided by the entry-level jobs that are being lost.

• Net effect The discrepancy threatens to create a training gap: without entry-level positions, the career ladder is missing its bottom rung, which could destabilize higher-skilled segments in the long term.

Interim result for 2028: Selective downsizing will primarily affect young academics; productivity gains will initially go to capital owners and highly qualified specialists.

3. Scenarios for 2030 (5 years): Intensified Transition Phase

• Labor market churn McKinsey expects up to 12 million job changes in the US alone; similar figures are emerging in the EU.

• Global shift Oxford Economics forecasts 20 million industrial jobs lost to robotics.

• Macro picture Acemoglu simulates only moderate TFP growth of 0.5–0.7% per year – too little to smooth out social distribution conflicts.

Interim result for 2030: Transition costs are rising faster than the aggregate increase in prosperity.

4. Scenarios for 2035 (10 years): Agents as Standard

Goldman Sachs sees a potential for automation of 25% of all current work tasks by 2035; half of all companies want to use AI as their primary decision-making authority by then. Value creation is migrating to platforms (“AI-as-a-Service”), while professions in prompt engineering, data governance, and AI auditing are expanding.

5. Scenarios for 2035 (10 years): Agents as Standard

Internal models developed by major investment banks project that around 50% of today's jobs could be completely automated by 2045. Humanoid robots and multimodal agents will shift scarcities from human labor to energy and raw materials. A post-scarcity economy is becoming conceivable – but with massive distribution risks.

6. Winners, Losers, & Distribution

The polarization pattern is intensifying: highly skilled workers are seeing jumps in income, while those with medium qualifications are losing out. According to the Axios analysis, entry-level positions are particularly at risk, and their disappearance will undermine internal talent development across entire industries. Returns on capital continue to rise; the wage share declines.

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According to Amodei, the next three to five years will bring a “white-collar bloodbath”, in which young academics in particular will feel the unexpected loss of traditional entry-level positions. After that, it will be decided whether we transform this shock into sustainable productivity gains – or whether a precarious service class emerges alongside an AI-supported elite.

Since AI is also boosting robotics, the two technologies are reinforcing each other. The weaknesses of earlier humanoid robots have been largely overcome by modern neural networks, enabling today's humanoid robots to perform delicate tasks that were previously the preserve of humans.

Dario Amodei recently proclaimed it loudly, Barack Obama, the Pope, and Sam Altman have stated it with unmistakable clarity: the world of work as we know it will change fundamentally forever. There is no doubt about that. Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind, says that we will be able to cure all diseases in 5-10 years. And yet these real utopias are still dismissed as fantasies. However, we must not succumb to this illusion. Change is coming, sooner rather than later.

AI accelerates productivity, but shifts more value creation to capital than any previous technology. In the short term, as many new jobs will be created as old ones disappear; in the medium term, there is a threat of a skills and distribution crisis; in the long term, traditional gainful employment could become optional for broad sections of the population. The decisive factor is how we view the returns from algorithms as a common good: token taxes, robotics dividends, and a radical redistribution of computing resources are not science fiction, but necessary responses to Amodei's scenario.

However, these questions must be asked by society as a whole and discussed with politicians. The development is currently progressing exponentially. That is why this discussion must not be postponed – it must be tackled broadly now before it is too late. No one could probably be any clearer.

The time to act is now.

Main Article Sources:

🔗 https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anthropic

🔗 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe1dke3Cf7I

🔗 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKCD2dmcjsQ

🔗 https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity

🔗 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3yQHYNXPws

A few final thoughts. Many people misunderstand AI as a chatbot. However, AI is used in numerous areas. In protein folding, as in AlphaFold, in weather forecasting in Microsoft's new Aurora, and especially in robotics. AI is more than just a nice chat buddy. It is a tool that permeates all areas and can even work independently as an agent.

Ignoring this and misinterpreting AI as nothing more than a chat window results in ignorance. We must oppose this if we do not want to be overwhelmed by the coming wave, as Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman so aptly put it last year in his book “The Coming Wave.”

All the signs are there; it couldn't be more obvious or direct. We must act. Now. To demand the promise of a good life for all.